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LED market gradually returns to supply and demand balance state packaging factory to turn to value war
A new wave of price hikes is coming, and domestic LED packaging and testing prices have risen: Recently, LED packaging companies such as Hongli Zhihui, Simai, Zhaochi, Jingke, Xuyu and others have issued a new round of price increase notice, raising the price of some products. . Among them, Hongli Zhihui and Simai have raised the price of products by 5%-15% respectively. Zhaochi Energy Saving Lighting decided to increase the sales price of 0.2W lamp beads and some 0.5W lamp beads products from December 1st. Among them, 0.2W raises the price by 10%, and 0.5W depends on the cost increase. The national star photoelectric white LED products also increased by 5-50%. The price increase is the fourth price increase after March, May and August. On the one hand, after 15 years of price wars on LED products, many domestic manufacturers have transformed or reduced production capacity. Since the supply side has been shrinking and the growth rate of package size has declined this year, the overall supply and demand relationship of the LED industry will gradually improve. Adjustments and destocking pressures eased, and the market gradually returned to a state of balance between supply and demand. On the other hand, since the second half of 2016, with the continuous increase of raw materials such as circuit boards and gold wires, and the increase in labor and rental costs, packaging factories have also shifted from price wars to value wars. With the increase in raw material costs and labor costs, this price adjustment is conducive to the improvement of LED manufacturers' profitability. LED penetration rate is gradually increasing, and small spacing is the point of view: in 2015, global LED lighting penetration rate reached 27%, and maintained an upward trend. We believe that the domestic LED lighting penetration rate is slightly higher than the global penetration level, about 30%, there is still considerable room for development. According to forecasts, the global LED lighting market will reach US$29.6 billion in 2016, and it is expected to reach US$33.1 billion by 2017, and the market penetration rate will exceed 52%. In 2015, the LED packaging market in mainland China was 8.8 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 2%. In 2016, the demand for lighting manufacturers to replenish stocks came out. It is estimated that the LED packaging market in mainland China will be US$9.3 billion in 2016, a year-on-year increase of 5%. Generally, the smaller the dot pitch is, the more the number of lamp beads used in the unit square is. Therefore, the development of the LED small pitch market has increased the demand for LED lamp beads. At present, the small-pitch LED display has entered the market growth period, and the statistical data display In 2016, the small-pitch LED consumption will reach 29 billion granules. In 2021, the small-pitch LED consumption will reach 188 million granules, and the annual compound growth rate will reach 46%. The output value is also expected to grow from 300 million US dollars in 2016 to 2021. The annual growth rate of 800 million US dollars can reach 21%. The outbreak of small spacing will further stimulate the demand for lamp beads. The concentration of LED industry is expected to be further strengthened. Some LED manufacturers will eventually benefit. The outdoor screen and vehicle market are expected to form new market opportunities: According to Wu Ling, secretary general of the National Semiconductor Lighting Engineering R&D and Industry Alliance, the output value of China's semiconductor lighting industry is expected to reach 500 billion yuan in 2016. Emerging markets such as smart lighting, plant lighting, UV-LED, IR-LED, optical communication, and automotive lighting, which have high value-added and new market segments, have become hot spots in the industry. In the aspect of outdoor display, with the continuous improvement of the LED display technology level, the display effect is continuously enhanced, and the LED display technology advancement also greatly reduces the cost of the operator's construction and the operation and maintenance cost, so the LED display becomes outdoor. The new darling of the media. At the same time, the trend of high resolution and high density of outdoor display is gradually rising. The average distance is from P10 to P6. The annual growth rate of LED outdoor media screen market in 2008-2014 is 31.4%. It is expected that the consumption of outdoor LEDs will grow from 93.6 billion in 2015 to 286.4 billion in 2021, with a compound annual growth rate of 20%. At the same time, the 13th Five-Year Plan pointed out that the new energy automobile industry will be vigorously developed, and the market share of domestic automobile manufacturers will gradually increase. Currently, automotive LED suppliers are mainly OSRAM, Lumileds, Hongli and so on. The rise of the automotive lighting market provides new market opportunities for LED manufacturers.